The World Technology stocks are further sliding down. December 2008

The World Technology stocks are further sliding down.
The DowJones Global 1800 – Technology Index has broken the long term support in October/November 2008. This is a clear sign the bear market, which started in 2000 on the technology tumble, is still in place.

Clearly the below chart indicates a further downtrend into the lows of 1992. Although a temporary retracement into the support/resistance line is still well possible on the short term. A retracement back above the longterm support line will invalidate this scenario. Note the index is now well below it’s 20 month moving average.

The World technology stocks are further sliding down.

Likely Price Target      : Half of the current value
Probably Time Target : Feb/March 2010.

The time target for a low in technology stocks
coincides with Fibonacci and Gann time targets. We are now on a final wave 5 down. It’s difficult to say if this will be the end of a bear market in technology stocks, or only a temporarily low, after which we get some relief for a several years before the bearmarket continues.

The DowJones Global 1800 – Technology index consists of the worlds most important technology stocks such as: Alcatel Lucent, Apple, ATOS, CANON, CapGemini, Computer Sciences Corp, Dell, HP, IBM, Intel, Logica, Microsoft, Nokia, Oracle, Sun, Yahoo and many others. See the other components here (click on link left).

As many technology stocks behave alike most of these stocks will likely experience a further downtrend along with this sector index into the time and price tragets as given in this analysis.

Take care in your trading.

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S&P500 SLT Forecast as of November 28th 2008

Where are we on the S&P500 and all the other major indices in this bearmarket?
In this article and anlysis we have looked at the Dewey cycles projecting them in the future from the major tops and bottoms of the S&P500 in the past, and will help you in determining any future tops and bottoms.

In this chart the 53,28 and 106,56 months Dewey cycles are displayed indicating the bearmarket will not have found a bottom until June 2009. This could only be a temporarily low, after which the bearmarket
could retrace for some time and then continues the downtrend into 2011 to complete a full ABC wave structure. We will have to see how this bearmarket develops.

Any way, do not expect a bearmarket low just yet, cycles and fibonacci ratios indicates a further downtrend. Allow for a monthly chart forecast  for a deviation  of 1 month. Note that in January 2009 we will likely have an intermediate bottom/(high?).

As the global market indices behave in concert, they belong to the same family group, expect all other major indices to behave in the same manner. We will post more analysis on the FTSE100, DAX, and many other indices around the world to show this too you.

Keep posted and come back to this blog. Forward the link to this blog to all your friends and collegues who might be interested in our analysis.

 

 

© Copyright 2001-2008 MarketTimingCycles.com

Nikkei 225 – Super Longterm Forecast November 2008

Market Position Nikkei225 Index – Super Long Term November 2008

The Nikkei225 Index is turning every 4 years, spot on in the month expected. As you can see from this chart, the Nikkei is now further sliding down into a 19 years low end of december 2008. Price levels are still well below the 21 month simple moving average. The low to be formed at the end of december could be the long expected turn for the Nikkei 225. The 19 years cycle is a metonic cycle, known not to invert itself, hence: the market(cycle) will thus repeat directly, and start a new cycle.

Target date:  29 dec 2008 -  We expect an Elliott wave 5 of a large degree to complete by that time. Note that in June 2009 a double test of the lows could occur, like in 2003, meaning the new cycle(upwards) could start as late as june 2009. Expect the price will need to return just a fraction lower than the lows in the 1980′s just before the maniac price surge started on this index.

Price target: anywhere between 3371 and 7557.
Please note: “Time is more important than price”.

This does not look good for the other Indices as well. There is quite some correlation between indices. They all belong to same family.

Take care in your trading.

Note webmaster(december 18th 2008): Time is running out this scenario is likely to occur. The probabilities are high the Nikkei 225 Index will continue it’s downtrend after the new year, possibly until 240 month after the start of this bearmarket. Keep watching this blog, we will post an alternative scenario soon.

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