We were ten very carefull in our time forecast given the wide range mentioned for a crest to occur. Tops can be difficult to forecast. In hindsight our forecast nailed down the high on the S&P500 exactly at April 29th. Notice that the top at 29th april was the highest close of the year) at 1363.61, only 5 points away from our  predicted most likely price target of 1358.55

At major support level

On the S&P500 we now arrived at the 21 month moving average, around the 23.6% retracement of the last leg up, as well as on the next Gann angle that connects the bottom of 2002(lowest close) with the current market price.

SP500 Market Position August 4 2011

The current level we are now on could form some intermediate support, but there is a good change the market will continue downwards after some retracement in the next few weeks to come to the 50% retracement levels or even more.  However, expect the unexpected. The market is currently very volatile, with wide swings, so don’t try to catch a falling knife. Wait for confirmation and the stock market to settle down first.

The odds are declining for a bull market to continue

We have made quite a tumble from the top of the bull market. The top for the S&P500 made on April 29th 2011  could well be a final crest in the current bull market but not necessarily. It is still too early to call. We could well be in a corrective wave, possibly a Elliott Wave 4 of some degree.  However the odds that the bull market will continue is rapidly declining.

We are now at the 21 month moving average support. If we fall through for two months at a row most likely this will likely confirm the crest has been set and we have started a new bear market. For the S&P500 the 21 month moving average is now approx. at 1201 in price and the current market price at 1199.38.

Due to all the other reasons mentioned in the above picture, on the Gann angles and Fibonacci relationships, the top of April 2011 in most markets is a major top, not likely to get passed easily.

Don’t miss the next turn

We sure have a fair idea where the market is heading in price and time in the coming months and years. We will not give it away in this free market forecast.

The path towards and where the next cycle turn date is to be expected will be disclosed to our insider club members only. So register to our free newsletter and I will update you how to become an insider club member and register for a paid subscription. Don’t miss the next turn.

Our new services

We are very busy in preparing the launch of our services and we are making good progress. Once we have launched our new service, due in September 2011, our premium forecast information will then be available for all paid subscribers and insider club members. You will then have access to our longterm, medium-term and short-term outlook for many major markets and updated bi-monthly or when needed. For early adopters there will be a fair discount on the subscription price. Don’t miss the next turn. Take care and stay tuned.

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We are now very close to the probable time and price target mentioned in our previous article for a medium term crest to occur.  So let’s have a look where we are right now and what other information could confirm this as well.

In the current market position as seen in the S&P500 and many other world indices we are now approaching a significant crossing. According to Gann you should watch 7 years from any important bottom or top. You will find many culminations around the 42nd month. We are now approaching the 42 month measured from the top in 2007. We are also drawn to an important Gann angle that could cause quite some resistance to cross.

This juncture has Fibonacci relationships of quite some significance as well and a first leg of a 4 year cycle is unfolding in a top as well. Decision points in stock markets are often seen at these points in time and price. Will this juncture be the end of the current bull market?

An important Fibonacci & Gann juncture
Decision points in Stock markets are often seen at Fibonacci related junctures in time and price and/or on Gann angles. The stock market is now approaching such a juncture and could possibly unfold end of April – end of May 2011.

SP500_April1111

Between the high of 2007, the low of 2009 and the high of 2011 a symmetrical triangle is formed of which each side is 1.618 times the other sides, measured in months. Notice the third leg from mid 2010 has a 0.618 Fibonacci relation with the first leg from the bottom in 2009 to mid 2010 measured in price as well. Be aware that the number 42 is a double Fibonacci number ’21′, the same applies to the number 16 (double ’8′) and the number 26 (double ’13′).

The possible crest around end of April 2011 also lies on an important Gann angle, connecting the bottom of 1987 with the expected heights in end of April/end of May 2011.

Likely price target for the S&P500 at that point in time is 1352 +- 20 points. We have reached that target window already a few days ago. However, the expected deviation for this likely top to be forming is +-1month as seen from end of April 2011. It all depends if you connect the lowest low, or the lowest close, or the highest close or the highest high with each other, if the trough or crest is formed in this month or the next/previous month. 

The 4 year cycle high
The above mentioned point in time coincides now also with a first leg of 4 year cycle (see the chart in our previous article) unfolding in a crest. See update below.

SP500_2_April1111

We have now arrived at the projected time and price we forecasted on January 26th 2011. I would be very cautious now. The market can become very volatile shortly afterwards. If you study at what happened each 4 years ago from now, you will notice many similarities with the current market conditions. If past cycle behaviour repeats itself, the 4 year stock market cycle could still bring us later on to higher heights, somewhere between October 2011 and March 2012.

Do take care, the volatility will likely be high at the end and/or beginning of a 4 year cycle!

Conclusion
We are approaching an important decision point in the stock market. This could also be a final crest in the current bull market but not necessarily. It is too early to call. It is still indecisive if this bull market is on its last leg. Be aware, the probabilities of past 4 year cycles behaviour shows that a downturn is likely to occur at this juncture for some time after which we could continue into new heights to culminate in a final crest for this bull market somewhere between October 2011 and March 2012. We will come back to that later on.

A good measure if the bull market is over is the 21 month moving average. As long as we stay above the 21 month moving average we likely remain in the current bull market. If we close below the 21 month moving average the odds are very high we have started a new bear market. For the S&P500 the 21 month moving average is currently at approx. 1152 in price.

For now we will definately experience quite some resistance and a mid-term turning point any time from now and end of May 2011 with a likely price target of 1352 on the S&P500 +-20 points. Notice we have arrived at that time and price window. So, I would treat this stock market very carefully.

We will post more analysis as the market develops in the next few weeks. We are very busy in preparing the launch of our services so the subscribers to our future premium information will then be able to instantly check our latest forecasts on all longterm, medium-term and short-term outlook for many markets once they have been updated. For early adopters there will be a fair discount on the subscription price. Take care and stay tuned.

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We hold the opinion that this short-term correction will have a very short life, and may already have occurred. At the moment we are consolidating due to the stronger cycles to drive the market upwards,towards the mentioned confluence of cycle to complete in time, while the smaller cycles are trying to correct on the short-term but are weaker. See below example on the S&P500.

The market is not likely to start its medium term correction before mid April – mid May 2011.
There is a confluence of cycles coming together at that point in time that will cause the market likely to correct between 10-20%. It is still unclear of this will be a steep and quick correction or that this will take more than several months. Probable Time Target: mid April to mid May 2011. Likely Price Target: 1358.55 on the S&P500.

Be aware any correction on the short-term as mentioned in our earlier articles of 2011 can still happen between now and Mid February. Take care!

As long as we stay above the lows of July 2010(on S&P500: 1010.91) the market is likely to  continue upwards after the mentioned correction of April/May this year. We will publish the most likely dates and targets beyond April-May 2011 for the mid-term forecast to our paid subscribers only.

We will post more analysis as the market develops. We will publish our 2011 roadmap shortly from now for our paid subscribers and we are very busy in preparing the launch of our services so the subscribers to our premium information will then be able to instantly check our latest forecasts on all longterm, medium-term and short-term outlook for many markets once they have been updated. For early adopters there will be a fair discount on the subscription price. Take care and stay tuned.

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© 2001-2011 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

There is a high probability (80%) that the expected short-term top has been set yesterday. The volatility and the move downwards is exemplary for a change in trend.

We expect a short-term bottom to occur around the first/second week of February 2011. How shallow or deep the trough will be, is difficult to say. We expect a 4-9% correction in most indices towards the Fibonacci 50-61,8% retracement zone, after which the market will likely continue on the main trend. See below chart on the S&P500

Be aware. The market position we are in is comparable with the market position, patterns and volatility 12 years ago. It seems that a powerful 12th year cycle is recurring in a similar way as twelve years ago. So, be prepared to see quite some volatility ahead and be carefull.

We will post more analysis as the market develops. We will publish our 2011 roadmap shortly from now and we are very busy in preparing the launch of our services so paid subscribers will then be able to instantly check our latest forecasts on all longterm, medium-term and short-term outlook for many markets once they have been updated. For early adopters there will be a fair discount on the subscription price. Take care and stay tuned.

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© 2001-2010 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

From a Fibonacci point of view the next logical turn date for example on the FTSE100 could be the 2,168 ratio in time. Drawn from the top in April 2010 into the July bottom of 2010, this project a possible turn data in the week of January 21st, +- 1 week.

I gave some other pointers in last weeks article as well, such as the stochastic indicator being oversold, and short and medium term cycles forming it’s crest in many indices. See our last week article on this.

After all, taking everything in consideration, the short-term correction might not have a big impact in time or price than I earlier expected due to the larger trend still completing its crest.  A short term correction could look more like the red forecast line drawn below on the FTSE100 chart:

Click to enlarge

So be carefull.

We will post more analysis as the market develops. We will publish our 2011 roadmap shortly from now and we are very busy in preparing the launch of our services so paid subscribers will then be able to instantly check our latest forecasts on all longterm, medium-term and short term outlook for many markets once they have been updated. For early adopters their will be a fair discount on the subscription price. Take care and stay tuned.

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© 2001-2010 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

After some cycle inversions in the second half of 2010 the cycles are now aligning to come in sync again. We are now 52 weeks or in Gann terms 360 degrees away from the top in January 2010, so we could expect a turn at such a point. The FTSE100 has likely started to turn at exactly the same time as last year, but this is not yet confirmed. The S&P500 last year turned nearly 9 days later last year, so we expect the S&P500 in topping phase, unless we close above the latest high. All indices have been overbought some time which add strength to our assumptions, but whether a short-term top has been set need still to be confirmed.

However the medium term cycle crest our MTC4 is not due for some time yet, so we expect this to be only a minor correction or a consolidation on an up trend still intact. We have posted our short-term market position on our MTC cycles 2 and 3 below for both the FTSE100 and S&P500. Many other world indices are in the same position right now.

The short-term outlook

Using our MTC2 (Red) and MTC3 (Blue) dominant cycle we now expect the short-term top has occurred for the FTSE100 and possibly also for the S&P500 and many other World Indices.  See below charts on the S&P500 as well as the FTSE100.

Like last year the S&P5oo top could be well some 8 to 9 days away from now as the MTC2 cycle(Red) could still be forming its crest. You can expect a 4% to 9% correction once the short-term top has set in and will run for a couple of weeks into end of January 2011 and beginning of February 2011. Price Target: 1238-1195 +- 20 points. If we close lower than 1173 or higher than 1278 on the S&P500 this scenario is likely to be invalid. Be careful the main trend, a larger cycle than mentioned in this analysis is still forming its crest to be completed a couple of months to go. The typical correction expected could therefore be smaller than the earlier mentioned targets.

For the FTSE100 the MTC3 (Blue) has already turned and the MTC2 (Red) has just formed its crest and we closed lower on Friday. So a short-term top could likely have been set at the same point in time as last year.

You can expect a 6% to 10% correction on the FTSE100 once the top has been confirmed (a close lower than the low of last week)  and this downturn will run for a couple of weeks into end of January 2011 and beginning of February 2011. Price Target: 5872- 5641. If we close lower than 5519 or higher than 6090 on the FTSE100 this scenario is likely to be invalid. Be careful the main trend, a larger cycle than mentioned in this analysis is still forming its crest to be completed months to go. The typical correction expected could therefore be smaller than the earlier mentioned targets.

The medium term view

For the longer term we stay on the bullish side, unless we close lower than  lower than 1173 or higher than 1278 for the S&P500 and for the FTSE100 if we close lower than 5519 or higher than 6090. 

Conclusion

We are now 52 weeks or in Gann terms 360 degrees away from the top in January 2010, so we can expect a turn at such a point. The FTSE100 has already started to turn at exactly the same time as last year. The S&P500 last year turned nearly 9 days later last year, so we expect the S&P500 in topping phase for a short-term correction. All indices have been overbought some time which add strength to our assumptions. However the medium term cycle crest our MTC4 is not due for some time yet, so we expect this to be only a minor correction on an up trend still intact. Be careful this larger cycle is still forming its crest to be completed and in the end phase it is probably more powerful than the smaller cycles. The typical correction expected could therefore be smaller than the  earlier mentioned targets, or we could have only a sideways movement for a couple of weeks. Many other world indices are in the same position right now. For the medium term we remain on the bullish side, unless we close below the low or high on the prices mentioned in this analysis for the respective indices.

We will post more analysis as the next cycle turn develops. We will publish our roadmap and longer term view shortly from now once our services are setup. Please read our Happy New Year article on our new services. Take care and stay tuned.

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© 2001-2010 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

Happy New Year!
First of all, we all wish you a very joyful and prosperous New Year.  We have not been actively updating our website in 2010 after our initial publications and the roadmap 2010 in January and February last year; we have been concentrating our efforts to prepare our paid services instead; but all of my loyal newsletter subscriber have had access to our 2010 roadmap.

The results of the MTC 2010 forecasts
To publish a Market forecast, based on cycle analysis a year ahead, is a challenge, as one has to cope for possible inversions, and in the end still have to be right. However, we took the challenge.

Our two analysis given free  of charge to our free newsletter subscribers however did a good job. Basically, we have had a sideways market until november 2010, after which the market surged to new highs in most market indices.

The S&P500 roadmap showed of the two roadmaps given on january 16th 2010, showed to be the best one, both in amplitude and timing. See our roadmap 2010 .

The roadmap based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was good in the overall market direction, but timing and amplitude was less accurate, due to inversions, but predicted the surge in the end of the year very well.

If we had published our month by month dynamic analysis, adjusted to the most recent available market data, our models would have adjusted well to the inversions in time, both in timing and amplitude. We will publish our month by month forecast of 2010 shortly from now to show these hypothetical results in retrospect. 

What’s next?
The year 2010 has certainly been a memorable year for us and now 2011 lays ahead of us and promises to become even more remarkable. We have concentrated our efforts to improve our analysis to become even better. We also have traded on our own analysis, and outperformed the leading index by 80%. So, now we are ready time to start our paid services.

On the most auspicious day of 2011 we have registered our new company. We are now developing our new website, and we will move to our final domain shortly from now in early Spring 2011. This will not be a free of charge service anymore; as  a free lunch does not exist. We have proven we can supply superb analysis for a long time now and that we can meet with the best and famous leading cycle analysts. See our Testimonials .

Our future price for our analysis will be very affordable, and of course, only my loyal free newsletter readers will get the benefit of getting in on a subscription based service at a discount rate. Prior to this we will publish our 2011 roadmap at a modest rate shortly from now. So do subscribe to our free newsletter, at or MTC mailinglist if not already done and stay tuned!

Of course we will continue our free newsletter and tonight we will publish our free analysis for the period to come.

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© 2001-2011 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

The expected midpoint of January 15th for a medium term top to occur in the S&P500 was only +- 4 days from the real top. The actual top in the S&P500 was set on January 19th on the close, which was only slightly higher than the close price on January 14th. We are now on our way to a medium term bottom low using the dominant MTC4 cycle downwards as our guide.

The medium term outlook

Using our MTC4 dominant cycle we now expect the bottom low to occur for the S&P500 around March 11th 2010 +- 7 days. The price target will be around 1010.68 on the S&P500 +- 20 points

The longer term view

For the longer term we stay on the bullish side , unless we close below the low of early July 2009.

The question remains whether the end of a wave 2 of a larger degree was completed at January 19th 2010. It could. However I expect a longer-term Delta cycle still to be formed before mid 2010. Although the average time of this delta high to complete  ranges from January up to July 2010.

From an Elliott wave perspective  you can see a Elliott Wave 2 of this degree has a very wide span of completion in time. As we also haven’t tested the Old Heads and Shoulders support and resistance lines yet, I expect this line needs to be crossed/touched first before we continue on the longer-term bear market down-trend.

So, in our opinion we are now on a counter trend downwards towards early March , after which the trend will continue possible on its last wave to complete Wave 2 of some degree.

Conclusion

We are now half way the dominant MTC4 cycle downwards. We expect a cycle trough to occur for the S&P500  around March 11th 2010 +- 7 days. The price target will be around 1010.68 on the S&P500 +- 20 points. For the longer term we remain on the bullish side , unless we close below the low of early July 2009.

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© 2001-2010 MarketTimingCycles.com. Reproduction or use of this material is allowed only upon prior consent of the publisher. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

The current S&P500 market position

We have nearly reached the projected time target in time but not in price for the S&P500. On the UK FTSE100 index we have already reached last week the projected time and price target at the 61% retracement level. Will this be the end of a wave 2 of a larger degree?

It could, but it does not seem to be in line with a Longterm Delta Cycle high to be expected mid 2010. So, I have adjusted my recent market position and brought it in line with my Annual forecast for 2010, just send out to our free subscribers a week ago. Please see below chart.

Typically as you can see a Elliott Wave 2 of this degree has a very wide span of completion in time. Given the current trend I expect Wave 2 will take some more time to complete, than earlier expected.

As we haven’t tested the Old Heads and Shoulders support and resistance lines yet, I expect this line needs to be crossed/touched first before we continue on the bear market downtrend.

The S&P500 has now touched the current upper trend line as formed since early last year. On January 15th 2010 we are also 45 weeks or 225 trading days after the March 2009 bottom. In Gann terms this point in time is typically a hard angle that typically come in as a high. We expect the market to continue its trend towards this important mid point in time. Next to this, we are also approaching a dominant natural cycle that is forming its crest.

The dominant cycle approaching its crest

On the short-term we expect the dominant cycle to approach its crest early to mid January 2010 on the S&P500.

The cycle crest can form as early as January 8th or as late as the end of January +- 4 trading days, with January 15th as the expected mid point of the cycle. A crest is likely to be formed when we close below the 1080 on the S&P 500. Be aware cycles can deviate easily from their normal course, due to the fact that smaller cycles may still be pointing upwards. So, always look for confirmation.

After the cycle crest has been formed a correction is likely to be set in, for several weeks or months. Be aware this only could be a minor correction or sideways movement towards the cycle trough, as the Long term Delta Cycle is still point upwards towards mid 2010.  

Conclusion

The current Elliott wave scenario suggests we are still on a wave 3 of a larger wave 2 counter trend for the S&P500 including many other indices around the world. From the dominant natural cycle perspective we are now forming a crest after which a correction is likely to set in. 

We expect the cycle crest to be formed around January 15th 2010 which is also 45 weeks or 225 trading days after the March 2009 bottom. In Gann terms this point in time is typically a hard angle that typically come in as a high. We expect the market to continue its trend towards this important mid point in time.

A crest is likely to be formed when we close below the 1080 on the S&P 500. Be aware this only could be a minor correction or sideways movement towards the cycle trough, as the Long term Delta Cycle is still point upwards towards mid 2010.  

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© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

If however we would have published our static forecasts a year ahead in 2009 would it have been any good?  The answer might surprise you! Read more on this in the article: “An overview of our Stock Market projections in 2009“.

This article includes the static MTC Annual Forecast chart for 2009, based on market data prior to 2009 and compares it to what actaully happened thereafter.

Stay tuned! We will update the blog shortly with the latest analysis and dynamic forecasts for the next few weeks or months.

Join a group of select individuals and subscribe to our free newsletter here and we will put you on our mailing-list. We respect your privacy. We don’t sell, rent or share your name or email address.

© 2001-2010 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.